「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2008年12月31日 星期三

Deming Symposium, Deming: the man by David S. Greisler

  • Requires login or subscription. Issue 8 1999 - Special issue: Operational Code Approach to W. Edwards Deming
Stupak, R. J. & Leitner, P. M.(2001)Handbook of Public Quality Management New York, NY: Marcel Dekker.

Journal of Management History (Archive)


Volume 5 Issue 8

Published: 1995 | Start Page: 428


Special Issue: Symposium issue on an Operational Code Approach to W. Edwards Deming
Guest Editor(s): Dr Ronald J Stupak
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Articles

Articles
Article No: Article Information:
871970 Symposium introduction: an operational code approach to W. Edwards Deming: The man, the context, the savant and the legacy
Ronald J. Stupak (pp. 428-433)
Keywords: Deming, Management history, Productivity
ArticleType: Literature review
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871971 William Edwards Deming: the man
David S. Greisler (pp. 434-453)
Keywords: Deming, Mathematics, Quality, Values
ArticleType: Viewpoint
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871972 W. Edwards Deming’s mentor and others who made a significant impact on his views during the 1920s and 1930s
Beth Blankenship, Peter B. Petersen (pp. 454-467)
Keywords: Deming, Mentor, Quality, Statistics
ArticleType: Viewpoint
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871973 Total quality management and the Deming approach to quality management
Peter B. Petersen (pp. 468-488)
Keywords: Deming, TQM
ArticleType: General review
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871974 Japan’s post-war economic success: Deming, quality, and contextual realities
Peter M. Leitner (pp. 489-505)
Keywords: Deming, Industry, Japan
ArticleType: Viewpoint
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871975 Ethics: a pencil case
Jay W. Gould (pp. 506-515)
Keywords: Deming, Ethics, Quality
ArticleType: Research Paper
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871976 Strategic management spin-offs of the Deming approach
Janet C. Vinzant, Douglas H. Vinzant (pp. 516-531)
Keywords: Deming, Strategic management
ArticleType: Research Paper
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Annotated bibliography on the Deming philosophy

Annotated bibliography on the Deming philosophy
Item No: Item Information
1486040 Annotated bibliography on the Deming philosophy
Journal: Journal of Management History
Vol : 5 Issue: 8
Special Issue: Symposium issue on an Operational Code Approach to W. Edwards Deming
Author(s): Jeffrey D. Gregory
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Special Issue

Special symposium issue on an operational code approach to W. Edwards Deming
Item No: Item Information
1486041 Special symposium issue on an operational code approach to W. Edwards Deming
Journal: Journal of Management History
Vol : 5 Issue: 8
Special Issue: Symposium issue on an Operational Code Approach to W. Edwards Deming
Icon: Requires login or subscription View HTML

Title: Symposium introduction: an operational code approach to W. Edwards Deming: The man, the context, the savant and the legacy
Author(s): Ronald J. Stupak
Journal: Journal of Management History
Year: 1999 Volume: 5 Issue: 8 Page: 428 - 433
ISSN: 1355-252X
DOI: 10.1108/13552529910290494
Publisher: MCB UP Ltd

Abstract:

In order to understand both the man and his contributions, this symposium is an attempt to construct an operational code based on the historical records and the data of W. Edwards Deming. Operational code is defined as those Deming guidelines and actions believed to be essential for the effective productivity of high performing individuals and organizations. It is assumed that these Deming rules and principles have general applicability to public and private organizations in the USA, and throughout the world. Because today one hears more discussion of the views of commentators and less discussion from the practitioners themselves, the thrust of this symposium is with the use of personal power and the elaboration of Deming’s compositions, books, letters, correspondence, and personal lectures on the management process as interpreted by both professional managers and Deming scholars. This development of an operational code hopefully will add critically important dimensions and synergy to the many biographical, historical, and eulogistic materials on Deming scattered in various journals, archives, and libraries.





David S. Greisler 的戴明簡傳
先發表在

Title:

William Edwards Deming: the man

Author(s):

David S. Greisler

Journal:

Journal of Management History

Year: 1999 Volume: 5 Issue: 8 Page: 434 - 453

Abstract:

W. Edwards Deming was revered as a technical genius in the areas of mathematics, statistics, and statistical variation. Though largely known for his professional achievements, the core of Deming was his quality of character. He was raised by his parents under austere conditions in the heartland of the USA. The values ingrained in him by his parents included spiritual beliefs, a love of learning, devotion to family, commit-ment to friends, and a strong work ethic. With an intense loyalty and love for his wife and children, he balanced his life so that family remained a priority. An accomplished writer of music, a grammarian, and a person with spiritual interests, Deming was much more than a public figure recognized as an icon of the “quality” movement.

收入

Handbook of Public Quality Management

作者:Ronald J. Stupak, Peter M. Leitner
可在Google book讀它
William Edwards Deming: the man by David S. Greisler

2008年12月30日 星期二

Ackoff videos on YouTube


http://ackoffcenter.blogs.com/



Russell Ackoff Videos

New Ackoff videos have been posted on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJxWoZJAD8k (part 1 on the difference between analysis and synthesis... only synthesis answers the question "Why?" as contrasted with "What?")
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdBiXbuD1h4 (part 2 on the difference between analysis and synthesis... including talking about what makes a system a system)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBrEJjT-dWU (part 3 on how architects think systemically... on how the best parts don't automatically make the best "whole"...and on what real problem solving involves)




Brian Joiner 的義工 第五代經營

Brian Joiner

An Afternoon with Brian Joiner - Friday the 26th, Noon to 2pm Pacific Time
Since 1997, when he ended his management consulting career, Brian Joiner has been a full-time community volunteer working to help create a just and sustainable society. In doing so, he is co-founder and President of
Sustain Dane, a non-profit organization in Dane County, Wisconsin, committed to creating communities that deeply enjoy, care for and are sustained by their unique environment. We all know that many of our current practices as communities are not sustainable and that together we need to find better ways to live in the world. Given this perspective, Brian and the Sustain Dane community are committed to taking an integrated approach to change.

Brian has offered us several Thought Pieces related to his current work. According to Brian, "The thing I am most excited about now is the Transition Towns movement which started in the UK a few years ago. It's what I will be focusing on once the First Unitarian Society green building is effectively launched." For a little background on that green building project, follow this
link. In addition, the following site gives a brief intro to the Transition Town approach, with much more detail on the Transition approach available in their Primer. Says Brian, "I hope this will be enough to start conversations."

Prior to his retirement, Brian Joiner was Chairman and co-owner of Joiner Associates, a nationally recognized management consulting firm. Prior to Joiner Associates, Brian was a University of Wisconsin professor. He is author of
Fourth Generation Management: The New Business Consciousness and coauthor with Peter Scholtes of The Team Handbook, published by Joiner Associates and one of the best selling business books of all time, having now sold over one-and-a-half million copies. Brian was one of the original nine judges of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, and, thirty years ago, was one of the originators of the Minitab statistical software system which is still in widespread use by corporations today.

2008年12月29日 星期一

Ernest Kurnow




"... The Way We Knew Him 63

"Hello Ernie," and My Day Was Made by Ernest Kurnow I first met Dr. Deming almost half a century ago when, as a young instructor in economics (at that time) in our undergraduate school, I ..."

Ernest Kurnow (born 1912) is a professor of undergraduate business statistics at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University, where he has been teaching since 1948. In his tenure at NYU, he has served as director of the Doctoral Program and was the chairman of the Department of Statistics and Operations Research from 1962 to 1976. Aside from his teaching activities, Kurnow has consulted government organizations, private corporations, and public utilities in the areas of finance, survey design, and forecasting.

Contents

[hide]

Education

Professor Kurnow Attended the City College of New York, from where he received his B.S. in 1932 and his M.S. in 1933. In 1951, he received a Ph.D. from New York University.

Family

Wife Joyce Kurnow

Children - Three Daughters - Ruth Jarrett, Susan Weistrop, and Alice Morin

Awards

References


The Constant Statistician

By Daniel Gross



Ernest Kurnow circa 1974, the year he received
the NYU Great Teacher Award.

This fall, when 94-year-young Ernest Kurnow (PhD ’51), professor emeritus of business statistics, enters the classroom to teach Statistics for Business Control and Regression and Forecasting Models, it will mark his 62nd year introducing Stern students to the wonders of regression analysis and probability.

Born in Brooklyn in 1912, Kurnow received bachelor’s and master’s degrees in math from New York City College in 1932 and 1933, respectively. In the depths of the depression, the best he could do was a job pushing a hand-truck in the garment center. But in 1935, he got a Works Progress Administration job teaching remedial reading and arithmetic. Five years later, he went to work as a statistician. He spent a year at the Aberdeen Proving Ground, the military base in Maryland that was to be the locus of important war-time innovations in computing and the application of statistical quality control, and then joined the New York City Board of Education.

In 1945, Kurnow’s wife, Joyce, encouraged him to enroll at New York University to take more courses in statistics. And here, he found a home – and a calling. In 1948, he became a full-time instructor in statistics, and the rest is history. When he started, there were 10,000 students in the undergraduate school. The goal was to train students to take entry-level positions at companies. “The walls at the old graduate school at 90 Trinity Place were paper thin, and I remember overhearing a professor teaching an international trade course next door,” Kurnow recalls. “He was teaching graduate students how to fill out a bill of lading.”

Kurnow became chairman of the statistics department in 1963. “I asked Deming” – W. Edwards Deming, the NYU professor who pioneered total quality management – “if he wanted to be chair. But he said he was too busy.” Kurnow headed the department through 1975, a period in which Stern changed its curriculum and focused on building full-time, research-based MBA and PhD programs.

Many of his most prominent students have retired, among them former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (BS ’48, MA ’50, PhD ’77), “a very bright guy,” and former head of Toyota Motors Tatsuro Toyoda (MBA ’58). When NYU gave Toyoda an honorary degree in 2004, Kurnow, who had saved his grade sheets over the years, presented him with the original. “He was tickled pink.” But Kurnow continues to teach as an adjunct professor. “I finally took a semester off during the spring 2006 semester, and I’m going crazy,” he said.

A great deal has changed – inside and outside the classroom since Kurnow started teaching. The computer has replaced the slide rule, for example. But Kurnow still gets the same thrill from teaching. “I love to teach, I love the contact with the students, and it gives me a feeling of accomplishment.” Students evidently agree – Kurnow received the NYU Great Teacher Award in 1974. And, today, as Stern students rank their professors on a seven-point scale, the statistics expert proudly notes that his scores are consistently above six.

Daniel Gross is editor of Sternbusiness.

三頭六臂集 101-09 豐田。領導 2008

109
經濟學家談企業之合作與競爭之畫分
Lectures in Macroeconomics Chapter 4. Productivity and Growth

As an economist I find this emphasis on cooperation fascinating, because we tend to focus on competition---in some ways, the antithesis of cooperation. Deming, for example, argues that firms should have a small number of suppliers, because only then can they enforce quality standards. The competitive approach, followed by US automobile companies for years, is to use many suppliers, so that you can use competition among them to keep the price low. So who's right? I think most people would agree that competition can be an effective tool. The former Soviet Union, for example, would probably have been more productive if incentives had led to greater competition among individuals and firms to supply goods and services. And at IBM, competition between divisions, rather than enforced cooperation with the mainframe division, might have spared them their poor performance in non-mainframe businesses. But some management studies suggest that competition between workers in similar jobs can actually lower productivity. Or that competition among students in a course can reduce the value of their educational experience. The question is where you draw the line. Should IBM be one firm or many? Should Citibank centralize its loan operations, or have several competing divisions? Should computer manufacturers join "cooperative" research programs or go it alone?

The question of where to draw the line between cooperation and competition is not one with a simple answer, but it's one of the basic issues in business and economic policy. For management it involves strategic decisions (enter a new business alone or with a joint venture?), performance appraisal (should individual members of a team be rated and rewarded differently, which might foster competition but discourage cooperation?), etc. For policy it involves questions of anti-trust (treatment of joint ventures to allow more cooperation), tariffs (should we protect ourselves from foreign competition?), and foreign investment (should we restrict foreign purchases of hi-tech firms, a restraint of international competition?).

Economists, by and large, find that competition among firms has been useful. But maybe there should be room for cooperation, too. The tension between these two forces is a continuing theme in management, and I think you'll find that it reappears in your management courses in other forms.

Out of the Crisis 中引 Mary Ann S. Gould 說單一供應商的責任和意義
她在 The Way We Knew Him 寫 The Philadelphia Story: W.E. Deming Remembered

108
紐約大學獎學金
The W. Edwards Deming Award, presented to the student majoring in either statistics and operations research or actuarial science who best symbolizes the qualities of scholarship and leadership and who exhibits potential for a successful career.

Deming Fellowship. This doctoral fellowship is funded through the generosity of Professor W. Edwards Deming. It is awarded to an outstanding doctoral student in statistics and operations research

校友 豐田汽車公司 老版
贈兩教授講座
原新聞稿竟然無日期
http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/news/news.cfm?doc_id=3558
The Toyota Professorship continues NYU Stern’s long-standing relationship with Toyota, which dates back to the 1950’s when Tatsuro Toyoda, son of Toyota Motor Corporation founder, Kiichiro Toyoda, studied statistics under the tutelage of then NYU Stern Professor W. Edwards Deming. Professor Deming pioneered statistical quality control techniques, which were embraced in Japan, and enabled Japanese automobile manufacturers, such as Toyota, to revolutionize their manufacturing processes. Toyota has also been a sponsor of the W. Edwards Deming Quality & Productivity Chair, which is currently held by Eitan Zemel.

107
小說戴明獎
徳丸 壮也著
税込価格: ¥2,310 (本体 : ¥2,200)
出版 : 東洋経済新報社
サイズ : 22cm / 406p
ISBN : 4-492-04154-0
発行年月 : 2001.5
2001/05/28
日経ビジネス
2001/5/30 下午 06:18:00
評価 ( ★マーク )


  全社的品質管理(TQC)という手法が、日本製品の質を世界のトップレベルに押し上げてきたのは紛れもない事実である。そして、1951年に創設された 「デミング賞」こそ、全社的・総合的な品質管理を実施する優良企業(または個人)だけに授与される最高の栄誉とされてきた。
 しかし、そんなTQCも日本型経営の弱体化とともに綻びを見せ始めている。本書は、業績悪化に直面した自動車会社を舞台に、TQCに固執し集団主義を強要する経営権力と、それに反発し捨て身で風土改革に取り組む一社員の戦いを描いた小説である。
  TQCの推進団体である日本科学技術連盟は96年以降、TQCを時代に適合した全社的品質経営(TQM)に置き換えるべしとしている。しかし、「個を無視 した“全社一丸体制”」「品質ならぬ人質じんしつ管理」など、主人公が直面する生々しい実態は、旧態依然とした姿で根強く生き残っていると著者は指摘す る。
 事実、主人公のモデルは実在するという。舞台そのものも史実に沿って描き出されている。サラリーマンが選ぶべき道は組織への忠誠か、個人の尊厳か。そんな視点で読み解くのも面白い。
Copyright (c)1998-2001 Nikkei Business Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.





106





デミングの組織論―「関係知」時代の幕開け (単行本) 武田 修三郎 (著)
日経BP企画
デミングの組織論
「変革を遂げた米国」と「閉塞状態に陥った日本」には見えないつなが りがあると著者は言う。そのつながりとは、品質管理で知られるデミングである。デミングの哲学を真に理解し、その組織を根づかせることができたか否かが、 現下の両者の違いにつながったとの分析だ。デミングの足跡をたどりながら、米国や日本の思考や組織を検証する。デミングの哲学とは一言で言うと「シ ステムと協力の概念」である。協力とは、単に職場の仲間内だけのものでなく、企業内のすべてのセクションで、あるいは系列企業やライバル企業などの枠を超 えて、知識や作業を共有し合うことを指す。また、官僚制では切り離されていた消費者や市民や競争相手をも組み込んだ民主的なシステムでなくてはならない。戦 後、日本企業はデミングの哲学を受け入れ、新しい思考、新しい生産方式、新しい組織を世界に先駆けて導入することで成功した。だが、まだら模様で官僚制を 残す一方、官僚が倫理観を忘れ、政治家は自己本位に陥り、国民が彼らにすべてを委ねるようになったために勢いを失っていった。日本はデミングの哲学を再確 認し、古い思考や組織が入り交じった現下の状態を解決することが不可欠だと指摘する。
(日経ビジネス2002/12/16Copyright©2001日経BP企画..Allrightsreserved.)


出版社/著者からの内容紹介
統計的品質管理を確立したデミングの思想には腐れ廃れた日本を再生させる原理があった。新しいデミングの魅力をもう一段深く発掘する。

産学連携から人づくりへ―日本再建のための緊急課題 (単行本) 武田 修三郎 (著), 日本産学フォーラム (著), 豊田 章一郎, 吉川 弘之, 近藤 次郎

内容(「BOOK」データベースより)
「イノベート力」を復活するために。産学のトップが胸襟を開き熱く未来を語り合う場、日本産学フォーラム。発足以来の記録をはじめて公開し、現下の日本が直面する人づくり、心の教育についてその方向を示唆する。

著者略歴 (「BOOK著者紹介情報」より)
豊田 章一郎
1925年生まれ。1947年名古屋大学工学部機械科卒業。1952年トヨタ自動車工業(株)入社。1972年同社取締役副社長。1981年トヨタ自動車 販売(株)取締役社長。1982年トヨタ自動車(株)取締役社長。1992年同社取締役会長。1999年同社取締役名誉会長。現在、同職。経済同友会顧 問、機械振興協会会長、日本自動車会議所会長、日本経済団体連合会名誉会長、発明協会会長、科学技術交流財団会長、愛・地球博内閣総理大臣特使、海陽学園 理事長など歴任。日本産学フォーラム現代表世話人

近藤 次郎
1917年生まれ。1945年東京帝国大学工学部航空学科卒業。1958年東京大学工学部教授。1975年同大学工学部部長。1977年同大学名誉教授。 現在、NPO環境テクノロジーセンター会長。国立公害研究所所長、日本学術会議会長、国際科学技術財団理事長、宇宙開発事業団評価委員会共同委員長など歴 任。初代日本産学フォーラム代表世話人

吉川 弘之
1933年生まれ。1956年東京大学工学部精密工学科卒業。1956年(株)三菱造船を経て(株)科学研究所(現理化学研究所)入社。1978年東京大 学工学部教授。1989年同大学工学部長。1991年同大学総長特別補佐。1993年同大学総長。1997年東京大学名誉教授。現在、独立行政法人産業技 術総合研究所理事長。文部省学術国際局学術顧問、日本学術会議会長、放送大学学長、国際科学会議会長など歴任。第3代日本産学フォーラム代表世話人(本 データはこの書籍が刊行された当時に掲載されていたものです) 商品の詳細 単行本: 270ページ出版社: 東洋経済新報社 (2007/11)

105

這字眼與通用汽車和 WWS的"轉型三說"扯上關係
This sense has developed into the modern English use of "cavalier" to describe a recklessly nonchalant attitude, although still with a suggestion of stylishness. Cavaliers in the arts Charles I, King of England, from Three Angles. The famous triple portrait of Charles I by Anthony van Dyck. See also 1600-1650 in fashion and Cavalier poets An example of the Cavalier style can be seen in the painting "Charles I, King of England, from Three Angles" by Anthony van Dyck.
104
But do cityfolk and country cousins ring in the year the same way?
台灣有多少人注意到我們的電話"桶"早已消失
前天知道WWS家無LANDLINE 大家都用手機
What We Will Miss: Red Telephone Boxes in Great Britain Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Red boxes, red buses: soon to be no more With all the celebrating and getting fit for the coming year – part of New Year’s celebrations are about remembering things past – things that are fleeting. In Great Britain, a symbol of life in the country is slowly dying out. The decline of the signal red telephone boxes has been gradual, but with more and more people hooking up via mobile phone, the end is in sight.


103
"聖依納爵 神操" (The Spiritual Excercises of St. Ignatitus) 台北:光啟文化事業 1978/2003 三版

神修三階段
煉路 明路 合路
始修者 進修者 成全者

如此 "戴明修煉"似乎應改成"戴明煉修全"

102
三呆老師說"領袖"的課程需求孔殷
我以前翻譯Peter Scholtes的 The Leader Handbook 為戴明領導手冊
還跟作者趣說 其中少談政治上的領導
跟Herbert Simon也談過類似的話
整本管理行為 少談 領導
因為這主題或許不容易為二十幾歲的Simon所掌握
不過他書房中的六位心儀的人物 或許也有領導學之意義

萨科齐说:"我认为,今天没有人可以否认,欧盟需要一个有魄力的轮值主席,一个真正的领袖。"


101
現在國際經貿新局讓各國勞資關係面臨前所未有的嚴峻挑戰
我們應該仔細觀察各國如何處理這考驗局勢
德國的

German President calles for spirit of cooperation
German President Horst Köhler has called for a new spirit of cooperation between employers and employees as a way of dealing with the current economic crisis here in Germany. President Köhler said he hopes that future wage agreements would reflect the reasonable wage agreements of previous years that translated into more jobs for Germany. He also called on employers to introduce more employee profit sharing in the future.

2008年12月26日 星期五

三頭六臂集 90-100

100
向沉默的讀者致敬
hc將開始發表我的職場回憶錄

99
或許人生最了不起的成就是讓人這樣"懷念"你
In pictures: Harold Pinter

Pinter and Lady Antonia Fraser

Lady Antonia Fraser, paid tribute to him, saying: "He was a great, and it was a privilege to live with him for over 33 years."

而你自己這樣滿意

Harold Pinter

Pinter summed up his career in a 1995 interview: "Quite simply, my writing life has been one of relish, challenge, excitement."



98
我個人認為宋文襄先生 ( W. H. Sung)1984年9月18日在台北圓山大飯店舉行「
國際品質大會」( International Quality Symposium, 1984,Taipei, Taiwan)乃是學會的一里程碑。會議主題為" 品質--生產力之鑰 (Quality - Key To Productivity)",深得Deming和 Ishikawa等大師的精髓。


It's a question of striking the right balance between quality and productivity.

(strike a balance
If you strike a balance between two things, you accept parts of both things in order to satisfy some of the demands of both sides in an argument, rather than all the demands of just one side)


97
每一種指標都要考驗其適切性
沒有那一指標可以完全說明系統
不管是什麼 六SIGMA或 CPk 什麼玩藝

"......經濟學家們的根本問題或致命偏好就是對一些簡單的經濟指標太過重視﹐尤其是對國內生產總值(GDP)數據。如果你問一位專業經濟學家中國有多少省﹐他可能 兩眼發呆。但如果你問他中國的GDP增長率是多少﹐他會馬上告訴你說﹐中國經濟過去30年的平均增長率達到兩位數﹐按照這個增長速度中國經濟會在2035 年(或其他某一天)超過美國。GDP中心論是經濟學家們常犯的毛病﹐它往往使人不去做更深的研究。這一點從經濟學家和分析師們大肆追捧高盛 (Goldman Sachs)那赫赫有名的“金磚四國”說上便可見一斑。高盛在研究報告中預測巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國經濟將急劇增長﹐而這份報告的依據比小學五年級算術 高明不了多少。

那些痴迷於中國GDP高增長率的人經常忽略了探討導致這一高增長的原因 ﹐以及這種增長是否可自我持續。而這正是脫鉤論痴迷者的硬傷﹐也是政策制定者容易犯大錯誤的地方。比方說﹐讓我們考察一下有關中國家庭收入的數據。中國家 庭收入增長非常緩慢﹐這種情況在農村家庭中尤為明顯。......" (wsj 黃亞生 中國經濟增長的南柯一夢 )

作者黃亞生是麻省理工學院薩隆管理學院的的國際管理教授﹐他撰寫了《有中國特色的資本主義》(Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics)一書。
類似的說法或論文一大堆
什麼
《有中國特色的 XYZ 管理》( XYZ Management with Chinese Characteristics)
我近日聽台大心理系的數十篇領導學論文
簡直是笑死人的文字和統計遊戲。


96
Toyoda家族等了近三十年終於有直系血親接任
可能是最後一代的家族企業之神話

全球最大的汽车制造商-丰田公司,可能于明年4月撤换总裁。据朝日新闻周二报道,迄今担任公司副总裁的丰田章男有望接替现任总裁渡边捷昭的职务。渡边捷昭 将更多地从事顾问工作。现年52岁的丰田章男是公司创始人丰田喜一郎的孙子。他将是14年来首位掌握公司最高权力的家族成员。目前丰田公司没有对朝日新闻 的这一报道发表任何评论。

95
我上本書談到劉振老師翻譯Deming之書時 沒有提到當時的中日緊張關係

日本外務省22日解密的外交文件顯示,前首相佐藤榮作1965年1月第一次以首相身份訪美時,對當時的美國國防部長麥納馬拉說,若日本與中國大陸開戰,「希望美國能夠立刻對中國進行核報復」,甚至要求美方先發制人以核武器攻擊中共。

中共1964年10月16日在新疆成功試爆第一枚原子彈,引起美國與日本嚴重關切。時任日相的佐藤榮作在1965年1月13日訪美,在白宮會談時要求美方 根據日美安保條約,保證在日本遭到核武攻擊時,美會以核武報復中國。共同社報導,根據當時會議紀錄,美國詹森總統同意提供這項保證。

佐藤是日本在位最久的首相,在位8年(1964-1972),一直相當敵視中國,要求中國先承認台灣。但佐藤卸任後,田中角榮於1972年與中共建交。佐藤因倡議「不擁有、不製造和不引進核武」的非核三原則,在1974年獲頒諾貝爾和平獎。
94
這種現象值得批判
注意 這些都是多國籍企業的本國人


惠普HP新法寶 退休員工幫忙打口碑
【經濟日報╱編譯謝璦竹/綜合二十一日電】

2008.12.22 02:54 am


62歲的托普爾平常的休閒不是含飴弄孫,而是到附近的3C賣場免費向客人解說惠普產品的功能特色。原來他是惠普的業務經理,四年前退休後,因為對公司還很有感情而繼續為老東家效命,像他這種退休員工已成為惠普重要的人力資源。

托普爾到賣場解說完全是自願性質,不管惠普還是賣場都沒有付錢給他。

退休後任教於聖克拉拉大學的托普爾說:「我覺得好像我有兩個婚姻,一個是與妻子的36年婚姻關係,一個就是在惠普。」

惠普正考慮設立附屬單位,聘請退休員工擔任資深行銷人員、親善大使或銷售義工,希望繼續善用他們的專業,並一圓他們希望與老東家維持關係的心願。

惠普說,網路時代興起新一波草根行銷,退休員工正好可提供口碑與客觀保證,是其他新興科技公司沒有的資產。惠普行銷長曼德侯(Michael Mendenhall)說:「我們打算重用這些偉大的品牌尖兵。說到口碑與第三人的客觀背書,什麼人會比得上自己(過去的)員工呢?」

今年初,曼德侯與執行長賀德出席惠普退休員工年會,他們說服逾500名退休員工擔任義工,加入當地的校友會、關心惠普重視的立法議題,並在慈善與社區活動中代表惠普。惠普的目標是鼓勵四萬名退休員工加入。托普爾說:「這讓他們感覺很好,覺得被需要。」

惠普前客服經理恩斯特與在惠普服務25年退休的穆索表示,他們可能沒有時間和精力加入義工行列,但很高興惠普有這樣的計畫。恩斯特說:「我們曾是惠普的員工,這讓我們感到很驕傲,也樂於與別人分享快樂。」

除了惠普,IBM、洛克希德馬丁(Lockheed Martin),甚至歷史相對較短的英特爾公司都擁有忠心耿耿的退休員工團體。

矽谷地區退休員工形成緊密的網路,包括出身非營利機構SRI International與全錄研究中心的老人,他們曾親身經歷矽谷的崛起,對傳統有特殊的感情,他們曾共同參與一些特定計畫或技術標準的建立,而產生深厚的認同感。


93

...“The best thing China can do is keep its own economy stable.”

It’s good advice. China is not going to rescue us or the world economy. We’re going to have to get out of this crisis the old-fashioned way: by digging inside ourselves and getting back to basics — improving U.S. productivity, saving more, studying harder and inventing more stuff to export. The days of phony prosperity — I borrow cheap money from China to build a house and then borrow on that house to buy cheap paintings from China to decorate my walls and everybody is a winner — are over.


China to the Rescue? Not!


Published: December 20, 2008
92
「活著就是基督」腓立比書1:21-26
"保羅寫腓立比書時,正等候一個生死的判決,凡認識 他的人都很擔心他的處境,他毫無掩飾的對關心他的人談論他對生死的看法。他說:『因我活著就是基督,我死 了就有益處。』從原文直接翻譯,這句話是:「對我而言,活著是基督,死了是得著。」這節經文中的『益處』在原文中有「得著、得到益處」的意思。用台語說, 就是『貿得』,如果你是一個作買賣的人,跟許多人競爭一個會賺錢機會,雖然你的競爭條件不比別人好,但最後你得到了,你可以說:『貿得』這筆生意,這帶有 一點意想不到的幸福的意味。保羅的意思就是這樣,他認為死了是有好處的,是幸福的。"
91

自由時報

被矮化降級? 台灣飛利浦CEO改稱總經理

〔記者卓怡君/台北報導〕台灣飛利浦(PHILIPS)遭荷蘭總部矮化降級?

台灣飛利浦總裁莊鈞源將於明年一月底退休,由現任台灣照明事業部總經理柏健生接任台灣總經理一職,值得注意的是,台灣飛利浦在台四十二年,歷任台灣最高主 管中文職稱向來是總裁,英文職稱為CEO(Chief Executive Officer),未來最高主管職稱卻改為總經理(Country Manager),矮了一截;反觀飛利浦目前在中國、印度、馬來西亞,甚至連菲律賓、巴基斯坦的最高主管職稱皆為CEO。

有關職稱的改變近來在台灣飛利浦內部引發員工高度討論,台灣飛利浦退休資深員工大嘆,在大中華區崛起的壓力下,台灣地位分明遭到矮化。飛利浦在台四十二 年,為荷蘭總部創造驚人產值,員工人數最高峰逾一.二萬人,隨著公司轉型,將台灣飛利浦建元電子獨立為恩智浦半導體、被動元件部門賣給國巨、行動顯示系統 事業部賣給統寶、顯示器部門賣給冠捷,退出傳統電子製造領域,聚焦在醫療保健、照明、優質生活三大核心事業上,轉攻台灣內需市場。在台員工銳減至四百人, 現在最高主管位階還被矮化,連菲律賓、巴基斯坦這兩個貢獻度不如台灣的國家最高主管都還叫CEO,看在飛利浦台灣員工眼中,真是「情何以堪」。

一九六六年,飛利浦踏上南台灣土地,在高雄楠梓加工出口區設廠,當時有所謂「北TI(德州儀器)、南PHILIPS(飛利浦)」的說法。飛利浦高雄建元廠 每年營收在飛利浦全球各個封測廠中居冠,台灣封測、晶圓代工業人才幾乎全出自飛利浦與德州儀器兩大外商體系,成為台灣封測界重要搖籃,在台灣半導體上中下 游供應鏈隨處可見飛利浦的身影。

但在全球大環境變遷下,飛利浦受到美國、日本、台灣資訊業猛力夾擊,一九九○年初期出現嚴重赤字,這家來自歐洲百年老企業進行大規模轉型與重組,專注在健 康舒適與優質生活(Health&Wellbeing)領域,過去兩年更花費逾一百億歐元併購燈具、醫療等公司,獲利逐年成長,重新擦亮這塊百年招牌。

針對降級一事,台灣飛利浦表示,此為總部決定,事涉敏感,無法評論,但過去台灣最高階主管的確都是掛CEO的英文職稱。


外商中文頭銜 暗藏玄機

記者卓怡君/特稿

有別於台商與日商,歐美外商向來中文頭銜給得特別大方,以利在外推動業務,裡面暗藏的玄機與學問相當有趣。

例如有的協理或總監職務在一般本土企業等同於經理,各事業部門還設有總經理,其實代表的「身分地位」最終還是要依英文職稱、向哪個區域的頂頭上司報告為準。

此 次台灣飛利浦高層人事,由飛利浦董事會(Board of Management)兩位成員:執行副總裁(Executive Vice-President)Gottfried Dutine及飛利浦執行副總裁暨照明事業執行長(Executive Vice-President and CEO of Philips Lighting)Rudy Provoost具名,在台灣飛利浦內部發出電子郵件公布;公文中指出,莊鈞源即將退休,由柏健生接任台灣總經理(Country Manager)並兼任既有照明事業部工作。

放眼各大型外商公司在台負責人的中文職稱多為「台灣總經理」,英文稱謂包括Country General Manager(例如台灣IBM)、Managing Director(例如台灣惠普、台灣萬寶龍)、General Manager(例如台灣微軟、台灣聯想),部分外商公司擔心「Country」這個字具有「國家」的意義,深怕觸動兩岸統獨敏感神經,還會特別改為中性 的General Manager。

資訊外商私下表示,各國分公司總經理以Country Manager稱呼很正常,但各公司沿襲的組織傳統不同,一旦職稱忽然有所變動的確不大單純,耐人尋味。



90

19-20 苗栗訪諸友 主人之狗多多情

Epistle To James Smith

by Robert Burns 1786
Type: Epistle
Friendship, mysterious cement of the soul!
Sweet'ner of Life, and solder of Society!
I owe thee much-Blair.
友情 奧密的靈犀相通
讓生活甜美 情誼永固
吾虧欠汝(等)多多


"「狗肉」(請台語發音)。Gaoba 是過去東海大學外文系裡一隻年老的名狗,大家都稱讚他有紳士風度,緩緩走過系館的每間教室,時而進入聆聽,時而趴下靜習。他不會像受驚的小狗狂吠,也不會 過度熱情猛舔你的牛仔褲。到了午餐時間,他會穿梭在辦公室裡的客廳,似乎明白每句閒話,卻禮貌地不作評論。我時常和他分享便當。Gaoba年老之後,從 「東別」走下山,卻沒力氣走回家,只好等狗爸爸Big John下課,以摩托車載他回別墅。之後,Gaoba連下山的力氣也沒有了。後來Big John瘦了十公斤,原來Gaoba離家出走,再也沒有回來。他們說狗兒會離家,獨自度過生命中的最後時刻。我想,其實狗兒們有一個集散地點是我們人類所 不知道的。在那個地點,狗兒在心裡約定的那一刻出現,外星人就把牠帶走了。那是我們人類不知道的祕密。Gaoba自從離開之後,好像從來沒回來過。" (陳南妤)

2008年12月25日 星期四

Path forward after Dec. 27th meeting


聞有賢主人,而多好山水。
是行頗為愜,所歷良可紀。

"Here is the transcript of the Breakthrough Performance Seminar on the DVD-Rom. This group has the potential to do great things for Taiwan."

Bill



Path forward after Dec. 27th meeting


Dear friends,

Thanks to the generosity and kindness of Bill, we had a 'fruitful' meeting. That is, Bill gave his 'state of arts' DVD of Deming Philosophy and Breakthrough Performance to participants of the meeting.
I think he is going to send us some pdf of transcripts of it.
As I mentioned in the meeting, we should contribute something, like feedbacks and/ or translations to it.
I hope you enjoyed it.

I also like to think Bill kindly lend his file of Dr. Deming's papers and notes during Bill's study with Dr. Deming in NYU.
This package is the idea od Prof. S. d. Wang's DEMING LIBRARY IN CSQC back 1978. I went through it. Many interesting materials. I'll report back later.

Now come to an idea of forming a special task force for NEw VERSION of FOUR DAYS WITH DR. DEMING.
Bill suggested the the 'Deming user group' better to have monthly gatherings.
S. D. Wang or Peter might like to initiate a task force to discuss FOUR WEEKLY MEETINGS for it to meet possible course for next semester.


Above- listed projects/information are for your reference.
Please treat my office and SHIN-PEITOU's meeting place as our resources and take advantage of them.

Good night or good day.

See you tomorrow.




Dear Jean-Marie,

I received your Christmas card. Thanks.
Tomorrow we'll have a Deming Circle meeting.
I am thinking how to be a 'good' user group.
Actually, we are quite loose coupled.

Happy New Year.
--
鍾 漢清
Hanching Chung (or HC/ hc)


2008年12月16日 星期二

關心車廠春秋

 
【記者部落格】GM復活所需要的“簡單”條件
DATE 2009/01/06
  【日經BP社報導】 “企業的根本宗旨是為股東創造利潤,所以收益性和現金流非常重要。我們公司去年大幅削減了面向美國汽車出租業的銷售。原因是銷售不划算。這樣做多少會犧牲一部分銷售額,但是是必要的”。這是刊登在《日經商務》2008年5月12日刊上的GM董事長理察·瓦格納的談話。

  目前商務的變化極為快速,因此半年前的想法現在可能已經改變。但是,如果瓦格納的這種想法至今仍沒有改變的話,那麼要想讓瀕臨倒閉的GM復活,再度成為全球第一的汽車廠商將是非常困難的。

  不得不退出虧損業務的經營判斷當然可以理解。但是對理察·瓦格納的話,至少筆者可以這樣解讀:“因為企業的最重要課題是股東的利益,所以即使拋棄客戶也要追求股東的利益”。但是,在閱讀了許多有關GM公司的報導後,筆者覺得這種觀點未必正確。

  每每看到有關GM的報導,筆者都會想日本的頂級汽車廠商絕不會這樣想。股東當然是重要的。不過,日本頂級廠商並不實行“股東至上主義”。雖然企業是建立在所有利害關係者的均衡利益之上的,但首先應該追求的是“客戶滿意”。

  比如,本田的企業理念是“站在全球的高度,為滿足客戶的需求生產性能優良、價格低廉的產品”,這便是常說的“本田哲學(philosophy)”。本 田公司裏沒有社長辦公室。被問及這一問題的本田社長福井威夫回答說:“這是因為社長辦公室與客戶利益完全沒有關係”,這番話給筆者留下了深刻的印象。

  眾所周之,產品是為客戶生產的。但是,要得到客戶的認可並不是簡單的事情。正因為如此,更應該矢志不渝地踏實勤懇地工作,一絲不茍地進行改 進。豐田汽車工廠的正門守衛室的玻璃窗上,用紅色字體醒目地寫著“愚直”、“勤懇”的口號。這不僅向該工廠工作的每位員工,同時也向與該工廠合作的其他公 司的員工傳遞著豐田的精神。汽車並不是只由一個汽車廠商製造而成,而是由多個供應商共同完成的。因此,不只是本公司的員工,其他公司的員工也應該具有客戶 至上的觀念。為此,該工廠的負責人想出了這種“可視化”的方法。

  豐田汽車2008年度的業績出現營業赤字之事已被報導。豐田正處於前所未有的低迷時期。雖然存在多種意見,但筆者認為在不對其他國家的汽車廠商產生不公平的前提下,美國政府對美國的“三巨頭”伸出援手也是迫不得已之事。

  但是有一個條件!這就是要求“三巨頭”立下保證:“今後,從社長到員工都要為分佈在全球各地的客戶製造優良的汽車而努力”。在此基礎之上,還要公開具體的實施計劃,並對進展情況等進行嚴格地確認。

  開發低燃耗汽車以及削減居高不下的固定費等,當然是“三巨頭”要做的事情,但是上述的根本條件無法滿蓄的話,“三巨頭”就不可能作為優秀的廠 商生存下去。雖然投入了難得的救助資金,但遺憾的是對美國國民而言,這些援助並沒有成為“有效的金錢”。“三巨頭”即使短期內獲得振興,可以預見最終還是 要輸給一直致力於客戶需求的日本廠商等其他國家的汽車廠商的。

  這些對日本廠商來說已經是理所當然的事情,也是每個員工都清楚的事情。不過,單從傳遞到日本的報導來看,這種“簡單的事情”在美國並未能夠上 升為重要話題。筆者希望能夠親自把這一點告訴為美國經濟復甦而四處奔走、對三巨頭救助持積極態度的美國下任總統歐巴馬,雖然明知這是不可能的。只要三巨頭 滿足不了客戶至上的條件,筆者認為這對日本汽車廠商來說可是個“千載難逢的良機”。(記者:近岡 裕)

■日文原文
GM復活のための“簡単な”条件

Auto Slump Has Deep Impact on Japan

As goes Toyota Motor, so goes Japan.

In recent economic downturns, Japan's been able to lean on its auto industry to offset declines elsewhere. But a decade of success by the car makers -- particularly Toyota's challenge of General Motors' position as the world's biggest producer -- means that they've become Japan's largest export sector just in time for a protracted slump in global auto sales.


  • 2008-12-31工商時報【陳穎柔


彭博社周二報導指出,在不景氣的影響下,日本車商聞名於世的及時生產系統(Just-In-Time)將有所調整,希望降低上游廠商破產所產生的影響,以免中斷汽車生產。美國的汽車研究中心指出,美國車商的不幸可能帶給供應商大衝擊,進而阻礙日商及其它外商在美生產汽車的事業。  豐田汽車北美子公司生產單位發出電子郵件表示,即使在通用和克萊斯勒獲紓困後,該公司仍繼續做偶發事件規劃。豐田指出,該公司希望美國車商取得的貸款將有助穩定供應商,但零組件產業依舊是一大隱憂。  北美豐田未來可望與更多家零組件廠商合作,並增加存貨,以便減輕美國上游廠商倒閉效應。北美豐田的供應商至少半數也和美國車商有合作關係。  根據顧問公司Grant Thornton的說法,美國汽車銷售創26年來新低迫使通用和克萊斯勒向政府求援,也讓北美至多三分之一零組件廠商遭遇破產風險。汽車業顧問公司CSM Worldwide的供應鏈分析師宮尾指出,往後幾個月,零組件廠商很有可能避免掉走上聲請破產保護一途,但半年後、一年後,此一風險勢必還存在。  JIT及時生產系統避免存貨囤積,採用JIT的車商傾向在需要零組件時貨才到,用以減少成本。分析師們表示,車商任何緊急措施都將花費不少錢,增加存貨意味著要租用倉庫存放零組件,而從海外買進零組件做補充將增加運費負擔。  本田汽車表示,該公司正討論美國某車商倒閉的各種可能後果,本田因應之道很可能包括增加存貨、使上游廠商數量擴大一倍,此外,本田擁有全球車款的優勢,比如Accord和喜美,因此美國可與其它地區分享零組件。  美國的汽車研究中心之副座希爾指出,日本車商最擔心的是生產特殊化零組件的二或三級較小型供應商,這些廠商是不被注意到的。

Toyota May Modify Just-in-Time to Ease Supplier Shock (Update1)

By Makiko Kitamura and Alan Ohnsman

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., Japan’s two largest carmakers, may modify their so-called “just-in-time” manufacturing system to avoid possible supplier bankruptcies disrupting production.

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC are battling to restructure after winning $13.4 billion in emergency federal loans to keep them operating through March. Detroit’s woes could lead to a “supplier shock,” crippling U.S. production at Japanese and other foreign carmakers, according to the Center for Automotive Research.

“We continue contingency planning” even after the bailout, Mike Goss, a spokesman for Toyota’s North American manufacturing unit in Erlanger, Kentucky, said by e-mail. “We hope the loans provided to Detroit will also help to stabilize suppliers, but the very slow market remains a concern for all.”

The Japanese company may work with more partsmakers and increase inventories to mitigate the effects of a collapse among its U.S. suppliers, at least half of whom also work for Detroit automakers, Goss said. U.S. vehicle sales at a 26-year low have forced GM and Chrysler to seek government aid and left as many as a third of North American component-makers at risk of bankruptcy, according to consulting company Grant Thornton LLP.

“Partsmakers may have escaped bankruptcy filings for the next few months, but six months, a year from now, the risk is definitely still there,” said Takeshi Miyao, a Tokyo-based supply chain analyst at automotive consulting company CSM Worldwide.

1938 Adoption

Toyota fell 1 percent to 2,905 yen at the 11 a.m. close of Tokyo Stock Exchange trading. It has fallen 52 percent this year.

Plunging demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest auto market, contributed to Toyota on Dec. 22 forecasting its first operating loss since 1938. That was the same year the carmaker fully adopted the “just-in-time” model, according to its Web site. Under the system, companies avoid stocking inventories, preferring to take delivery of components as they are needed, to cut expenses.

Any emergency measure would be costly, analysts say. Increasing stockpiles would mean renting warehouse space to store parts and supplementing components from overseas would increase shipping costs.

“We’re considering many scenarios for possible outcomes” from a U.S. automaker’s collapse, said Yasuko Matsuura, a Tokyo- based spokeswoman at Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker.

Measures may include increasing inventories and doubling sources to buy parts, Matsuura said. “We also have strength in having global models such as the Accord and Civic, so we can share parts from other regions for those models.”

‘Very Concerned’

“We’re very concerned,” said Fred Standish, a spokesman for Nissan Motor Co.’s North American unit in Franklin, Tennessee. “If one company goes into severe economic distress, it affects many others up and across the supply chain.”

About 60 percent of Nissan’s 350 suppliers in the U.S. also supply GM, Chrysler and Ford Motor Co., Standish said. He declined to comment on any contingency measures the company is taking to prevent disruptions to production.

GM, Chrysler and Ford plan to shutter about 59 factories over the next month. A small number of parts suppliers asked GM for payments in advance after the automaker said it would run out of money by month’s end without U.S. loans, according to people familiar with the matter.

Smaller Suppliers

The main concern for the Japanese carmakers is “the smaller, second- or third-tier suppliers that make specialized parts,” said economist Kim Hill, associate director of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “It’s these smaller companies under the radar.”

The risk from a collapse at a specialized partsmaker echoes the impact from a production halt at Riken Corp., Japan’s biggest piston-ring maker, last July after suffering damage from an earthquake. Riken’s shut-down forced eight of Japan’s 12 carmakers to temporarily suspend or cut manufacturing, leading to a total output reduction of at least 120,000 vehicles.

“If one maker is supplying 85 percent of the particular widget, you have a problem; if it’s 50-50, maybe not as much of a problem,” said Kurt Sanger, a Tokyo-based auto analyst at Deutsche Securities, adding that a Riken-like situation is possible “on a much broader scale.”

Toyota’s Goss said “there may be more risk” for models that are only built in the U.S., such as the Tundra pickup truck and Sequoia sport-utility vehicle. Its other models such as the Camry are also built overseas, and parts could be shipped in from outside the U.S., he said.

Strong Yen

The strong yen, however, is pressuring the Japanese carmakers to reduce exports from Japan and increase sourcing of components from the U.S. for vehicles built there, said Ashvin Chotai, managing director of Intelligence Automotive Asia Ltd., an automotive consulting company in London. The yen has gained 23 percent against the dollar this year, also eroding the value of overseas sales.

Changing manufacturing processes would add to companies’ costs, while they are already cutting earnings forecasts.

Toyota earlier this month lowered its estimate to a 150 billion yen operating loss in the year ending March, compared with a 600 billion yen profit, as a global recession and tighter credit cripples vehicle demand. Honda cut its profit forecast by 62 percent on Dec. 17. Nissan slashed its forecast by 53 percent in October.

While adopting a production system with greater inventories and reliance on imported parts will be costly and less efficient, the alternative would be worse, said Ed Kim, director of industry analysis for AutoPacific Inc. in Tustin, California.

“As messy as it may be from a logistical perspective, it’s better than not having any cars to build,” said Kim.

To contact the reporter on this story: Makiko Kitamura in Tokyo at mkitamura1@bloomberg.net; Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 29, 2008 21:22 EST

Op-Ed Columnist

Win, Win, Win, Win, Win ...

(作者Thomas L. Friedman是紐約時報專欄作家)
Published: December 27, 2008

How many times do we have to see this play before we admit that it always ends the same way?

Which play? The one where gasoline prices go up, pressure rises for more fuel-efficient cars, then gasoline prices fall and the pressure for low-mileage vehicles vanishes, consumers stop buying those cars, the oil producers celebrate, we remain addicted to oil and prices gradually go up again, petro-dictators get rich, we lose. I’ve already seen this play three times in my life. Trust me: It always ends the same way — badly.

在承認結局一成不變之前,這齣戲碼我們到底要看幾次?

哪齣戲碼?主要情節包括,油價上漲,研發更節能車款的壓力增加;油價下跌,高耗油車款承受的壓力解除,消費者不再買省油車,產油國額手稱慶,我們用油仍然用得凶,油價再次攀升,握有石油的獨裁者累積鉅額財富,我們是最後的輸家。我這輩子已經目睹3次相同的戲碼。相信我,結局始終一樣:很糟糕。

So I could only cringe when reading this article from CNNMoney.com on Dec. 22: “After nearly a year of flagging sales, low gas prices and fat incentives are reigniting America’s taste for big vehicles. Trucks and S.U.V.’s will outsell cars in December ... something that hasn’t happened since February. Meanwhile, the forecast finds that sales of hybrid vehicles are expected to be way down.”

我在本月22日看到CNNMoney網站的這篇文章時,只能倒抽一口冷氣:「銷售衰退將近1年後,低油價與很好的優惠已經再度勾起美國人對大型汽車的胃口。12月的卡車與運動休旅車銷售量將超越汽車…這是2月至今所僅見。另一方面,混合車款的銷售量可能下降。」

願你有個美好的一天。在沙烏地阿拉伯,又是一天的開始。

Have a nice day. It’s morning again — in Saudi Arabia.

Of course, it’s a blessing that people who have been hammered by the economy are getting a break at the pump. But for our long-term health, getting re-addicted to oil and gas guzzlers is one of the dumbest things we could do.

對於一直飽受經濟衰退衝擊的人來說,油價下跌讓他們得以喘息,這當然是幸事。不過若為長久打算,再開始揮霍石油與天然氣顯然愚不可及。

That is why I believe the second biggest decision Barack Obama has to make — the first is deciding the size of the stimulus — is whether to increase the federal gasoline tax or impose an economy-wide carbon tax. Best I can tell, the Obama team has no intention of doing either at this time. I understand why. Raising taxes in a recession is a no-no. But I’ve wracked my brain trying to think of ways to retool America around clean-power technologies without a price signal — i.e., a tax — and there are no effective ones. (Toughening energy-effiency regulations alone won’t do it.) Without a higher gas tax or carbon tax, Obama will lack the leverage to drive critical pieces of his foreign and domestic agendas.

這正是為什麼我認為,有待歐巴馬裁示的最重大決策是確定振興經濟方案的規模,其次是應否提高聯邦石油稅或廣徵碳稅。我看得出來,歐巴馬團隊對於兩稅將暫時 按兵不動。我可以理解原因。在經濟衰退時期加稅是兵家大忌。我絞盡腦汁試圖找出不必扯到錢(稅)也能推廣潔淨能源科技的辦法,結果找不到可行之道(僅強化 能源效率法規不足以濟事)。如果不加汽油稅或課徵碳稅,歐巴馬勢必缺少推動重要外交及內政政策所需的籌碼

How so? According to AAA, U.S. gasoline prices now average about $1.67 a gallon. Funny, that’s almost exactly what gas cost on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001. In the wake of 9/11, President Bush had the political space to impose a gasoline tax, a “Patriot Tax,” to weaken the very people who had funded 9/11 and to stimulate a U.S. renewable-energy industry. But Bush wimped out and would not impose a tax when prices were low or a floor price when they got high.

原因何在?目前的美國汽油售價大約每加侖1.67美元,幾乎與911當天上午的汽油價格相同。911事件發生後,布希總統獲得開徵新的汽油稅─另類「愛國 稅」的政治空間─據以削弱資助911攻擊的特定人士,並振興美國再生能源產業。但布希臨陣退卻,不願在油價降低時加稅,也不肯在油價提高時制訂底價。

Today’s financial crisis is Obama’s 9/11. The public is ready to be mobilized. Obama is coming in with enormous popularity. This is his best window of opportunity to impose a gas tax. And he could make it painless: offset the gas tax by lowering payroll taxes, or phase it in over two years at 10 cents a month. But if Obama, like Bush, wills the ends and not the means — wills a green economy without the price signals needed to change consumer behavior and drive innovation — he will fail.

當前的金融危機有如歐巴馬的911。美國人準備接受動員。歐巴馬即將挾其雄厚的民意後盾上台。這是他開徵汽油稅的天賜良機。他可以將衝擊減為零:以降低薪 資所得稅的手段抵銷,或以每個月遞增10美分,為期2年的方式為之。如果歐巴馬一如布希,只重結果而忽略手段,亦即只著重於建設綠色經濟,卻未輔以改變消 費者行為與促進創新所需的價格訊息傳遞,他終將失敗。

The two most important rules about energy innovation are: 1) Price matters — when prices go up people change their habits. 2) You need a systemic approach. It makes no sense for Congress to pump $13.4 billion into bailing out Detroit — and demand that the auto companies use this cash to make more fuel-efficient cars — and then do nothing to shape consumer behavior with a gas tax so more Americans will want to buy those cars. As long as gas is cheap, people will go out and buy used S.U.V.’s and Hummers.

有關能源創新的2項最重要法則分別是:價格決定一切(價格提高,人們相應改變習慣),系統化的方法不可或缺。美國國會為3大汽車提供134億美元的紓困貸 款,要求它們以這筆貸款研發燃料效率更高的車種,卻又未以汽油稅引導消費者,使更多的美國人樂於購買這種汽車。這毫無道理。只要汽油價格低廉,美國人必將 繼續購買二手運動休旅車與悍馬車。

There has to be a system that permanently changes consumer demand, which would permanently change what Detroit makes, which would attract more investment in battery technology to make electric cars, which would hugely help the expansion of the wind and solar industries — where the biggest drawback is the lack of batteries to store electrons when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. A higher gas tax would drive all these systemic benefits.

我們必須建立一種足以徹底改變消費需求,徹底改變底特律車廠產品特色,為電動車的電池技術吸引更多資金,進而協助風力與太陽能發電產業大幅擴張的體系。後者的最大缺陷是,如果風力或日照不足,電池即無法蓄電。提高汽油稅必然有助於驅動這些系統化的好處

The same is true in geopolitics. A gas tax reduces gasoline demand and keeps dollars in America, dries up funding for terrorists and reduces the clout of Iran and Russia at a time when Obama will be looking for greater leverage against petro-dictatorships. It reduces our current account deficit, which strengthens the dollar. It reduces U.S. carbon emissions driving climate change, which means more global respect for America. And it increases the incentives for U.S. innovation on clean cars and clean-tech.

地緣政治也是如此。汽油稅足以降低消費者對汽油的需求,使美元留在美國,導致恐怖分子的資金逐漸乾涸,並在歐巴馬設法累積對付石油獨裁政權的更大籌碼時, 降低伊朗與俄羅斯的影響力。它也能降低我們的經常帳赤字與碳排放量,進而為我們爭取國際社會更多的尊重,還能強化美國研發潔淨車種與科技的誘因。

Which one of these things wouldn’t we want? A gasoline tax “is not just win-win; it’s win, win, win, win, win,” says the Johns Hopkins author and foreign policy specialist Michael Mandelbaum. “A gasoline tax would do more for American prosperity and strength than any other measure Obama could propose.”

上述各點,我們哪個不想要?約翰霍普金斯大學的外交政策專家曼德爾鮑姆表示,汽油稅「不只是創造雙贏的工具,而是全盤皆贏的局面」。他說:「汽油稅為美國創造繁榮並厚植實力的效果遠大於歐巴馬能提出的任何手段。」

I know it’s hard, but we have got to stop “taking off the table” the tool that would add leverage to everything we want to do at home and abroad. We’ve done that for three decades, and we know with absolute certainty how the play ends — with an America that is less innovative, less wealthy, less respected and less powerful.

我知道不容易,可是我們不應一再放棄可為美國增加海內外影響力的工具。我們已經這樣過了30年,也很清楚這種戲碼的結局是什麼:一個創造力、財富、受人尊重的程度,以及整體國力日益低落的美國。


佛里曼專欄》不徵油稅碳稅 歐巴馬…必敗



本田社長福井威夫用“持續發展了100年的汽車市場目前已進入一個新的階段”(撤出F1時的新聞發佈會上所言)來形容目前的狀況。本田把經營資源集中到“ 混合動力車和小型車”上的決定,將改變今後大型車的銷售狀況暫時不會好轉的預測。這個判斷是否正確呢?本刊將繼續關注金融危機之中的汽車產業。

A Letter to the President of General Motors North America
Family Security Matters - Ridgewood,NJ,USA
Not being too complacent or arrogant to listen to Dr. W. Edwards Deming four decades ago when he taught that by adopting appropriate principles of management, organizations could increase quality and simultaneously reduce costs. Ever increased productivity through quality and intelligent planning. Treating vendors like strategic partners, rather than like "the enemy." Efficient front and back offices. Non-union environment. (Google News Alert for: w edwards deming)

Grave Forecast

Founded in 1937, Toyota has reported an operating profit every year since 1939. For the current fiscal year, it expects net income of 50 billion yen, helped by interest income and dividends from affiliates. That's less than a tenth of its previous forecast of a 550 billion yen profit, and a fraction of the 1.72 trillion yen it posted in the year-earlier period.

[toyota ]

Like all car makers, Toyota has slathered on incentives to try to boost sales, but such moves have had little impact. Dealers say tight credit and low consumer confidence are keeping buyers away from showrooms and threatening to hold down car sales in the coming year. John Bergstrom of Bergstrom Automotive, a dealer of Toyota and other makes in Wisconsin, said consumer confidence is so low "it's almost like they need permission to buy something."
關心美國車廠春秋

田汽車(Toyota Motor)已經無限期推遲美國密西西比州一家工廠的建設﹐該廠原計劃從2010年5月開始生產豐田普銳斯(Prius)混合動力轎車。這再次顯示出﹐外國汽車製造商也開始縮減北美地區的業務。

2007年豐田批准了這家工廠的組建。當時汽車銷量劇增﹐外國廠商都在拼命擴大生產﹐從美國汽車三巨頭手裡攫取市場份額。但是﹐隨著衰退和汽車銷量暴跌至危機水平﹐即便是財務狀況較好的汽車廠商也不得不撤退了。

預測公司IHS Global Insight的分析師麗貝卡•林德蘭德(Rebecca Lindland) 說﹐市場對豐田“翻臉”了﹐就像對三巨頭做的一樣。

Associated Press
2008年2月豐田在密西西比工廠的奠基儀式
本田汽車(Honda Motor)上週五宣佈﹐將在北美地區進行今年的第四輪減產。今年以來﹐本田共計減產17.5萬輛﹐約為原計劃的12%。這相當於一家工廠一年的產量﹐對今年早些時候還公佈了創紀錄的銷量的本田來說﹐減產規模可謂驚人。

通用汽車(General Motors)最近表示﹐明年第一季度將減產約25萬輛﹐約為北美地區組裝量的三成。

最 近二十年來﹐外國汽車製造商一直在擴大北美地區的生產。德國的寶馬汽車(BMW AG)計劃斥資7.5億美元擴建南卡羅來納州的一家工廠﹐不過由於汽車市場的不景氣﹐該公司最近裁減了數百名臨時工。韓國的起亞汽車(Kia Motors)正在喬治亞州建自己的第一家美國工廠﹐該公司週一表示廠子有望在一年後投產。

大眾汽車(Volkswagen AG)計劃於2011年下半年在田納西州新建一家工廠﹐組裝一款新轎車。該廠年生產能力為25萬輛﹐標志著在上世紀80年代末關閉了賓夕法尼亞州的一家工廠後﹐大眾汽車重返美國的汽車組裝業務。

豐 田在密西西比州的工廠位於圖珀洛附近﹐原本計劃生產豐田漢蘭達(Highlander)運動型多用途車(SUV)。今年春季油價飆升的時候﹐豐田將投產時 間從2009年底推遲到了2010年5月﹐之後又表示該廠將轉而生產普銳斯。普銳斯工廠建設的推遲意味著這款車仍將只在日本生產。

豐田表示﹐將完成廠房的建設﹐但是會暫停生產設備的安裝。該公司稱﹐現在已經投入了13億美元建設成本中的3億美元。豐田在一份聲明中表示﹐由於市場的不確定性﹐現在很難說工廠何時投產。

Kate Linebaugh

全球最大的汽车制造商-丰田公司,可能于明年4月撤换总裁。据朝日新闻周二报道,迄今担任公司副总裁的丰田章男有望接替现任总裁渡边捷昭的职务。渡边捷昭 将更多地从事顾问工作。现年52岁的丰田章男是公司创始人丰田喜一郎的孙子。他将是14年来首位掌握公司最高权力的家族成员。目前丰田公司没有对朝日新闻 的这一报道发表任何评论。
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